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~~~Investment letter – October 18, 2009LONG TERM STABILITY OR INSTABILITY?The twenty-five year period between 1982 and 2007 may be the best period in economic terms in our nation’s history. There were only two shallow recessions, each lasting just 8 months. This extended period of economic growth and stability provided a wonderful investment climate that lifted the DJIA from under 1,000 in 1982 to over 14,000 in 2007. In order to gain a better perspective and appreciation of this period of prosp

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Random Feed wrote an interesting post today on
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Nothing is easier than identifying problems during recessions. In fact, one might argue that what is truly difficult is avoiding mention of these problems, which are shouted from the rooftops daily by politicians and journalists. (Many of whom harp on problems even during prosperous times.) Still harder is calling attention to the overlooked benefits that economic downturns can bring. In this recession as in others past, opportunities have opened up for consumers, investors and businesses positi

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Random Feed wrote an interesting post today on
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As a practitioner in the fields of bankruptcy, workout and corporate restructuring, and in a shameless admission of self-interest, I readily admit to being vitally interested in whether the U.S. Economy is due for a downturn. It has often been said that economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions. The notion was also advanced, by the Clinton Administration, not so long ago, that the business cycle, as we have always understood it, was a thing of the past. Is this so? On the one

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Random Feed wrote an interesting post today on
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WASHINGTON – Relentlessly rising unemployment is triggering more home foreclosures, threatening the Obama administration’s efforts to end the housing crisis and diminishing hopes the economy will rebound with vigor. In past recessions, the housing industry helped get the economy back on track. Home builders ramped up production, expecting buyers to take advantage of lower prices and jump into the market. But not this time. These days, homeowners who got fixed-rate prime mortgages because they ha

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By: Mike Whitney Jul 04, 2009 There’s a big difference between inventory-driven recessions and credit-driven recessions. An inventory recession is caused by a mismatch between supply and demand. It’s the result of overcapacity and under-utilization which can only work itself out over time as inventories are pared back and demand builds. Credit-driven recessions are a different story altogether. They typically last twice as long as and can precipitate financial crises. The current recession i

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